Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Early numbers

No count on Virginia, as anyone who cares to know already knows. Florida is looking good, but is it time to put that state back in with the Kentuckys of the world? Gore was able to make it a nail-biter by hitting hard on the Social Security issue. Between Jews and Cubans, there is no reason the man from Kenya should win that state.

But this presents an interesting paradigm. Obama still seems comfortably (though not incontrovertibly) ahead, not unlike GWB in 2004. Now, 2004 was no landslide. Should Obama win, he'll be on a short leash.

In addition to the other facts and figures you might care to look at, consider whether Obama can garner more than 51% of the vote. If he cannot, then we may be looking at 2010 as a foregone conclusion for the Republicans.

Of course, Democrats assumed the same thing about Bush. And then 9/11 happened, and Bush became very difficult to beat. Would a 9/11 have a similar effect, or is he a transitional president?

The numbers tonight will help answer that question.

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