Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Assessing my New Year's Predictions

Fair's fair, so before issuing predictions for 2010, I thought I'd take a step back and review my 2009 predictions for content and accuracy.

"This will be the first year that a substantial number of papers go entirely online."

This was nebulous enough that nearly any results renders it true. That said, it appears papers are content to fold up shop rather than embrace new media. Suit yourself.

"As a result, paleomedia types will request a bailout, which they will receive in exchange for vastly expanded federal regulations governing content."

They requested it, but didn't get it, with the exception of some earmarks. Obama really needed to lock this down during bailout season. I'm glad he didn't.

"Obama will appoint some damn czar."

He has.


"Nothing Israel does will satisfy the leftist anti-semites who control the UN and the EU."

Nothing Israel did please the UN and EU. Further, Israel has essentially lost the U.S. as an ally.

"Realizing this, Israel will beat the sweet piss out of Hamas."

Nope. C'mon guys, get it in gear. To paraphrase Jason Robards: "A girl could beat up Hamas".

"Obama will punt on the issue, and be praised for his patience."

Replace Israel with Iran and Aghanistan, and this is right on the money.


"The Lions will draft well, and numerous sportswriters will again make them the sleeper pick to win their division. Two weeks into the season, those same sportswriters will be talking about how obviously bad the team is. The Lions will not win their division."



"A white woman and/or homosexual male will be killed in Northeast Minneapolis and/or Longfellow, causing the cities ruling class to actually care about the city's crime. R.T. Rybak will face a tough, late challenge in the mayoral race"

No, though I'm going to revamp this one for 2010. Seward is getting pretty close to Stuff White People Like Territory. Like, you can see that store from the Pizza Luce.

"Also, the failure of the amply funded Minneapolis school system will make national news a la Kansas City in the mid-1990s."

Swing and a miss, which isn't to say the Minneapolis school system didn't fail.


"A number of restaurants will close in Minnesota, but most of these will be chains, new openings by holding companies, or flat out crappy restaurants. Overall, good food will be more abundant and more affordable."

With a couple of exceptions (such as the poorly located Mairin's Table), this is pretty much what happened. As an added bonus, farmer's markets are thriving.


"The transition to Blu-ray will be very slow, and the core technology will ultimately be remembered as a stepping stone to a better technology that incorporates the internet in a user friendly way. Early adopters will have essentially wasted their money."

The transition has been slow, and Netflix seems to hold the key to the disruptive technology that will render Blu-ray irrelevant. I'll give myself a 7/10 on this one.

"Al Franken will be a bigger embarassment to Minnesota than Mark Dayton and Jesse Ventura combined."

As humiliating as Dayton, maybe, but not Ventura.

"This, in tandem with the bad economy, new taxes (for which most people won't remember having voted) and the above-mentioned city problems will push the state further into the red column."

This is almost certainly true, and the early crime boom in 2010 isn't likely to change the trajectory.

"Mitigating against this phenomenon, an increased portion of our population will head to the Dakotas in search of jobs, higher quality of life, and fewer taxes. At least one "big name" company will relocate to South Dakota. 3M will threaten to follow suit, but will get a deal from the state to remain."

True, in small doses. Moreso, those who migrated from SD to Minnesota are migrating back. In a state with one of the lowest unemployment rates, the jobs are sure to follow.


"Julia Roberts will find critical plaudits for yet another crappy performance in a decent movie. The accumulated ire welling within the public consciousness will foment, though, with the release of some Oscar-preening chick drivel."

Nope. But Amy Adams is doing her damndest to become the next Julia Roberts.


"In spite of his inaugural snub, Jim Wallis will be Barack Obama's Father Coughlin. The left-wing Christian movement will gain traction as the popularity of associating big government ideals with pseudo-Christian rhetoric continues to sway public opinion in traditional red states. The emergent movement will ride these coattails, ceasing to resemble Biblical Christianity in any shape or form."

Nope on swaying traditionally red states. Yes on everything else.

"Obama's inaugural will be hailed as the greatest in history. It will also be utterly banal."

It was a banal, though the press actually called him on it.

"By next year's Oscar season will be the best in years, as filmmakers stop making message movies (Milk, W, Syriana, Babel, All the Returning Soliders are Dead or on Meth Part 4) and return to making good ones."

Disastrously wrong.


"Card check will pass, and the Eastern European mafia will get a foothold in the United States. Democrats will regard the latter phenomena as a coincidence."

Wrong. I can't believe how ineffective Obama has been. The problem, I think, was starting with Cap and Trade, the most controversial item on the agenda, then leaving it to simmer.

"Barack Obama will sign some legislation in favor of gay marriage or abortion. In order to appear moderate, he will accompany this with the arbitrary decision to reignite the drug war. His base will be pissed, for obvious reasons."

He did the former, but seems to have no interest in appearing moderate.

"A right wing counterpart to Dailykos and Democratic Underground will emerge, featuring posts and discussions by angry and hysterically irrational conservatives. It will be embarassing to most conservatives the way Dailykos isn't for Democrats, as paleomedia will finally notice the blogosphere."

Right idea. Wrong medium. Glenn Beck and Teaparties are close enough for partial credit, though.


"The Bill Richardson fallout will be more damaging to the Dems than they expect, as now the New Mexico governor's litany of past transgressions will be brought to light, and average voters will wonder how this schmuck became a leading light within the party."

Why did I think anyone would give a damn about Bill Richardson? This was a stupid prediction.


"The Republicans won't use the filibuster very often, though it will seem like a lot."

This was my best prediction of they year. They haven't used it at all, but have been accused of being obstructionists nonetheless.


Anonymous peter said...

Good post, way to be accountable. I'd love to read your thoughts on the Tea Party movement sometime.

6:57 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home